Example: “event by Jan 31” and “same event by Mar 31”. The later market includes every scenario where the earlier market wins, plus extra time after Jan 31.
Snapshot summary
104active deadline rows
12multi-deadline families
15term monitor alerts
9stronger flow alerts
58calendar pairs checked
0positive calendar arbs
0.889theta AUC
13/13 Yesθ≥7pp backtest
Generated at 2026-05-21T15:59:57.889392+00:00. Raw CSV/JSON files are in processed/; fetched raw trade/price files are under raw/.
Plain English
If the near deadline gets expensive, markets think risk is soon. If only the far deadline rises, markets think risk is real but later.
If wording is truly nested, buy YES later + buy NO earlier pays at least 1 in every outcome. It is only a locked profit when that package costs less than 1.
Use this page for intuition: deadline pairs are mostly a way to separate “event risk rose” from “event risk rose immediately”. Always check wording before treating a pair as mechanical.
Technical translation
- θ-abn is the move after subtracting normal no-event deadline decay. Positive values mean risk rose despite time passing.
- haz/day converts by-date probability to daily event intensity:
-ln(1-p)/days_remaining. - vs longest > 1 means the short deadline is front-loaded relative to the longest sibling market.
- Calendar arbitrage rows are mechanical constraints only; auto-grouping can confuse subtly different resolution criteria.
Live term-structure / flow rows
| flow alert | monitor | family | deadline | market | event p | θ-abn 6h | θ-abn 24h | haz/day | vs longest | 6h flow | surge | event flow | yes bid | yes ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | iran ceasefire continue | 2026-05-22 | will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-22 | 10.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 33.3% | 68.9x | $126.2k | 16.9x | -52.8% | 91.0% | 93.0% |
| 1 | 1 | iran ceasefire continue | 2026-05-24 | will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-24 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 0.4% | 8.2% | 17.1x | $73.7k | 8.0x | 2.5% | 82.0% | 83.0% |
| 1 | 1 | iran ceasefire continue | 2026-06-15 | will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-june-15 | 49.0% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 5.7x | $2.7k | 4.4x | 93.3% | 50.0% | 51.0% |
| 1 | 1 | iran ceasefire continue | 2026-05-31 | will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-31 | 34.5% | 4.7% | -0.6% | 4.5% | 9.4x | $18.4k | 5.9x | 51.5% | 65.0% | 66.0% |
| 1 | 1 | iran ceasefire continue | 2026-05-27 | will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-may-27 | 23.5% | 2.9% | -2.4% | 5.0% | 10.4x | $14.4k | 5.7x | 44.5% | 76.0% | 77.0% |
| 1 | 1 | russia capture all of pokrovsk | 2026-05-31 | will-russia-capture-all-of-pokrovsk-by-may-31-2026 | 95.2% | 2.2% | 74.6% | 32.5% | 1.0x | $4.0k | 6.9x | 43.9% | 96.1% | 96.8% |
| 1 | 1 | iran closes its airspace | 2026-05-24 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 | 15.5% | 1.4% | -0.8% | 7.2% | 5.9x | $67.7k | 2.9x | -4.2% | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| 1 | 1 | us x iran permanent peace deal | 2026-06-15 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734 | 33.5% | 0.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 3.2x | $53.0k | 3.3x | -58.6% | 33.0% | 35.0% |
| 1 | 1 | iran closes its airspace | 2026-05-31 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-434-443-672-526-188-756 | 28.5% | -1.3% | -4.2% | 3.6% | 3.0x | $37.2k | 3.1x | 17.0% | 28.0% | 29.0% |
| 0 | 1 | israel closes its airspace | 2026-05-24 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 | 10.5% | 3.2% | -3.6% | 4.8% | 2.7x | $15.1k | 3.1x | -31.3% | 10.0% | 11.0% |
| 0 | 1 | us x iran permanent peace deal | 2026-05-22 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-22-2026 | 5.9% | 2.2% | 4.2% | 18.1% | 34.0x | $95.0k | -28.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | |
| 0 | 1 | us x iran permanent peace deal | 2026-05-31 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026-333-871-241-192-799-449 | 21.5% | 1.5% | 7.4% | 2.6% | 4.9x | $629.0k | -53.7% | 21.0% | 22.0% | |
| 0 | 1 | iran closes its airspace | 2026-05-27 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-29 | 22.5% | 0.9% | -1.7% | 4.8% | 3.9x | $13.5k | 2.7x | 5.2% | 21.0% | 22.0% |
| 0 | 1 | us x iran permanent peace deal | 2026-06-30 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877-363-892 | 41.5% | -0.8% | 6.7% | 1.4% | 2.6x | $57.8k | 2.2x | -41.4% | 41.0% | 42.0% |
| 0 | 1 | us x iran permanent peace deal | 2026-07-31 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026 | 53.0% | -1.4% | 7.0% | 1.1% | 2.0x | $34.5k | 1.5x | -44.7% | 52.0% | 55.0% |
| 0 | 0 | iran ceasefire continue | 2026-06-07 | will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-june-7 | 42.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 7.0x | $543 | 0.7x | -11.3% | 57.0% | 59.0% |
| 0 | 0 | iran ceasefire continue | 2026-06-30 | will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-june-30 | 55.5% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 2.1% | 4.3x | $1.8k | 2.0x | 16.6% | 46.0% | 47.0% |
| 0 | 0 | iran ceasefire continue | 2026-12-31 | will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-december-31 | 66.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 1.0x | $4.5k | 4.5x | 68.6% | 33.0% | 35.0% |
| 0 | 0 | iran ceasefire continue | 2026-07-31 | will-the-iran-ceasefire-continue-through-july-31 | 62.0% | 1.1% | 7.0% | 1.4% | 2.8x | $139 | 0.3x | 95.6% | 37.0% | 39.0% |
| 0 | 0 | ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces | 2027-01-01 | ukraine-agrees-to-limit-size-of-armed-forces-before-2027 | 18.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 17.0% | 19.0% |
| 0 | 0 | china invade taiwan | 2027-01-01 | will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027 | 7.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $14.4k | 1.4x | 76.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% |
| 0 | 0 | israel closes its airspace | 2026-06-15 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15-687 | 34.5% | 0.8% | -6.7% | 1.7% | 1.0x | $93 | 0.2x | 83.1% | 33.0% | 36.0% |
| 0 | 0 | nicolas maduro released from custody | 2026-12-31 | nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by-december-31-2026 | 12.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $350 | 1.4x | 100.0% | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela | 2026-12-31 | us-recognizes-machado-as-leader-of-venezuela-by-december-31 | 10.5% | 0.5% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $7 | 99.5x | -100.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% |
| 0 | 0 | china x japan military clash | 2027-01-01 | china-x-japan-military-clash-before-2027 | 9.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2k | 40.1x | 100.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% |
| 0 | 0 | ukraine signs peace deal with russia | 2026-06-30 | ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-june-30 | 6.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.1x | $944 | 2.2x | 67.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% |
| 0 | 0 | nicolas maduro be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-nicols-maduro-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | -100.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 0 | 0 | ukraine re enter myrnohrad | 2026-05-31 | will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-may-31 | 4.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0x | $2 | 0.2x | -100.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% |
| 0 | 0 | china invade taiwan | 2026-06-30 | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026 | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 1.3x | $16.7k | 3.8x | -11.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% |
| 0 | 0 | another iranian diplomat expelled | 2026-06-30 | another-iranian-diplomat-expelled-by-june-30 | 18.5% | 0.1% | -3.5% | 0.5% | 1.0x | $11 | 0.5x | -81.8% | 17.0% | 20.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us x russia military clash | 2026-12-31 | us-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775 | 4.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 2.2% | 7.0% |
| 0 | 0 | edmundo gonzalez be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-edmundo-gonzlez-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $2.1k | 1.4x | -3.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% |
| 0 | 0 | edmundo gonzalez be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-edmundo-gonzlez-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| 0 | 0 | russia capture lyman | 2026-05-31 | will-russia-capture-lyman-by-may-31-2026 | 3.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| 0 | 0 | congress passes iran war powers resolution | 2026-05-31 | congress-passes-iran-war-powers-resolution-by-may-31 | 6.9% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 1.0x | $5 | 0.1x | -100.0% | 5.0% | 8.8% |
| 0 | 0 | richard grenell be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-richard-grenell-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| 0 | 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | 2026-12-31 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-december-31-2026 | 46.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.0x | $1.8k | 3.0x | -11.4% | 46.0% | 47.0% |
| 0 | 0 | france uk or germany strike iran | 2026-06-30 | will-france-uk-or-germany-strike-iran-by-june-30-259 | 5.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $2.8k | 1.0x | 69.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% |
| 0 | 0 | delcy rodriguez be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-delcy-rodrguez-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 86.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 86.0% | 87.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us forces in venezuela again | 2026-06-30 | us-forces-in-venezuela-again-by-june-30-2026-624 | 4.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% |
| 0 | 0 | israel enacts military exemption for yeshiva students | 2026-09-30 | israel-enacts-military-exemption-for-yeshiva-students-by-sep-30 | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | |
| 0 | 0 | nato x russia military clash | 2026-12-31 | nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-244 | 22.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $8 | 0.0x | -100.0% | 22.0% | 23.0% |
| 0 | 0 | delcy rodriguez be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-delcy-rodrguez-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 18.5% | 0.0% | -1.9% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $35 | 0.4x | -34.5% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us strike on colombia | 2026-12-31 | us-strike-on-colombia-by-december-31 | 16.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $11 | 0.1x | -81.8% | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| 0 | 0 | another us strike on venezuela | 2026-12-31 | another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by-december-31 | 13.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $84 | 1.9x | 43.7% | 12.0% | 14.0% |
| 0 | 0 | pete hegseth enter iran | 2026-06-30 | will-pete-hegseth-enter-iran-by-june-30 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $78 | 2.0x | -0.1% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
| 0 | 0 | china invade taiwan | 2027-06-30 | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027 | 12.5% | 0.0% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.5k | 8.8x | -99.1% | 12.0% | 13.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us officially declare war on iran | 2026-12-31 | will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by-december-31-2026-746 | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $8 | 0.3x | 56.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| 0 | 0 | maria corina machado be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-mara-corina-machado-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 4.5% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us officially declare war on venezuela | 2026-06-30 | will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-venezuela-by-june-30-2026 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $6 | 0.3x | -100.0% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| 0 | 0 | dan caine be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-dan-caine-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 0 | 0 | jorge rodriguez be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-jorge-rodrguez-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $36 | 1.4x | -0.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| 0 | 0 | there be no head of state of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-there-be-no-head-of-state-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.6k | 1.1x | -11.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 0 | 0 | donald trump be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-donald-trump-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $30 | 5.9x | -100.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 0 | 0 | marco rubio be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-marco-rubio-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.6% |
| 0 | 0 | saeed jalili be head of state in iran | 2027-01-01 | will-saeed-jalili-be-head-of-state-in-iran-end-of-2026 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.7k | 3.1x | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 0 | 0 | ali motahari be head of state in iran | 2027-01-01 | will-ali-motahari-be-head-of-state-in-iran-end-of-2026 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 0 | 0 | donald trump be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-donald-trump-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 0 | 0 | diosdado cabello rondon be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-diosdado-cabello-rondn-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| 0 | 0 | marco rubio be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-marco-rubio-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.9k | 0.9x | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | richard grenell be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-richard-grenell-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $119 | 0.1x | 66.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | pete hegseth be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-pete-hegseth-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $100 | 0.2x | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | dan caine be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-dan-caine-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $44 | 0.0x | -100.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | frank donovan be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-frank-donovan-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $40 | 0.0x | 100.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | dinorah figuera be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-dinorah-figuera-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $36 | 0.1x | 100.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | evan pettus be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-evan-pettus-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | vladimir padrino lopez be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-vladimir-padrino-lpez-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | evan pettus be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-evan-pettus-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | frank donovan be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-frank-donovan-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | jorge rodriguez be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-jorge-rodrguez-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | vladimir padrino lopez be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-vladimir-padrino-lpez-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| 0 | 0 | russia invade a nato country | 2026-06-30 | will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-by-june-30-2026 | 2.0% | -0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $64 | 0.0x | 18.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% |
| 0 | 0 | diosdado cabello rondon be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-diosdado-cabello-rondn-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 0.5% | -0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.2k | 0.8x | 41.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 0 | 0 | russia capture all of prymorske | 2026-05-31 | will-russia-capture-all-of-prymorske-by-may-31-2026 | 1.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $360 | 24.3x | -100.0% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
| 0 | 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | 2026-05-22 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-22-2026-516 | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 0.7x | $18.5k | 11.0x | -99.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 0 | 0 | us x russia military clash | 2026-06-30 | us-x-russia-military-clash-by-june-30-2026-249 | 1.5% | -0.1% | -0.3% | 0.0% | 1.8x | $10 | 0.2x | 100.0% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| 0 | 0 | there be no de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-there-be-no-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 4.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1 | 0.4x | -100.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% |
| 0 | 0 | dinorah figuera be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-dinorah-figuera-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 2.3% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.7% | 4.0% |
| 0 | 0 | pete hegseth be de facto leader of venezuela at | 2027-01-01 | will-pete-hegseth-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-venezuela-at-the-end-of-2026 | 1.6% | -0.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0x | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.5% |
| 0 | 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | 2026-05-31 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-may-31-2026 | 1.5% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6x | $3.8k | 0.8x | -57.7% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| 0 | 0 | nicolas maduro be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-nicols-maduro-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 66.9% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0x | $48 | 0.0x | -100.0% | 66.8% | 67.0% |
| 0 | 0 | indonesia recognize israel | 2026-06-30 | will-indonesia-recognize-israel-by-june-30 | 1.1% | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $0 | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 0 | 0 | nato x russia military clash | 2026-06-30 | nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-june-30-2026 | 4.9% | -0.4% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 1.1x | $2.2k | 1.5x | -86.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| 0 | 0 | israel x iran permanent peace deal | 2026-05-31 | israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026 | 1.5% | -0.4% | -1.1% | 0.2% | 0.7x | $15.9k | 3.9x | -68.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% |
| 0 | 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | 2026-10-31 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2026 | 36.5% | -0.5% | -0.8% | 0.3% | 1.0x | $168 | 0.3x | -100.0% | 36.0% | 37.0% |
| 0 | 0 | china x india military clash | 2026-12-31 | china-x-india-military-clash-by-december-31-2026 | 12.0% | -0.5% | -0.4% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $919 | 63.8x | -99.5% | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| 0 | 0 | maria corina machado be leader of venezuela | 2027-01-01 | will-mara-corina-machado-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026 | 6.5% | -0.5% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $1.3k | 1.0x | 56.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| 0 | 0 | ukraine agrees not to join nato | 2026-06-30 | ukraine-agrees-not-to-join-nato-by-june-30 | 4.5% | -0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 1.0x | $12.1k | 2.7x | -41.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% |
| 0 | 0 | maria corina machado enter venezuela | 2026-05-31 | will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-may-31 | 6.0% | -0.8% | -1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0x | $3.3k | 3.8x | -99.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% |
| 0 | 0 | maria corina machado enter venezuela | 2026-06-30 | will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-june-30 | 23.5% | -0.9% | -1.5% | 0.7% | 1.0x | $232 | 1.0x | -12.2% | 23.0% | 24.0% |
| 0 | 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | 2026-06-30 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-june-30-2026 | 12.5% | -0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.2x | $548 | 0.4x | 59.6% | 12.0% | 13.0% |
| 0 | 0 | ukraine signs peace deal with russia | 2027-01-01 | ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027 | 29.5% | -1.0% | -0.4% | 0.2% | 1.0x | $6.9k | 2.0x | 1.5% | 30.0% | 31.0% |
| 0 | 0 | delcy rodriguez out as leader of venezuela | 2026-12-31 | delcy-rodrguez-out-as-leader-of-venezuela-by-december-31-2026-148-853 | 10.0% | -1.0% | -1.9% | 0.0% | 1.0x | $8 | 5.7x | -100.0% | 8.0% | 12.0% |
| 0 | 0 | china invade taiwan | 2026-09-30 | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026 | 3.5% | -1.0% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 0.8x | $6.7k | 5.9x | -75.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| 0 | 0 | israel x iran permanent peace deal | 2026-06-30 | israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-262 | 8.0% | -1.4% | -8.1% | 0.2% | 1.0x | $3.3k | 1.2x | -44.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% |
| 0 | 0 | israel closes its airspace | 2026-05-31 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31 | 21.5% | -1.5% | -7.4% | 2.6% | 1.5x | $20.0k | 2.4x | -5.7% | 21.0% | 22.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | 2026-12-31 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026-961-587-341-574 | 69.5% | -2.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.0x | $63.6k | 1.9x | 2.1% | 69.0% | 70.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | 2026-07-31 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-july-31-2026 | 72.5% | -3.9% | -4.0% | 1.8% | 1.0x | $1.1k | 1.0x | -19.9% | 64.0% | 73.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | 2026-06-30 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-259 | 61.0% | -4.8% | -3.6% | 2.4% | 1.3x | $20.0k | 3.9x | -51.6% | 59.0% | 60.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | 2026-05-31 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026-283-616 | 22.0% | -5.9% | -2.3% | 2.7% | 1.5x | $132.4k | 4.5x | -7.7% | 21.0% | 23.0% |
| 0 | 0 | iran closes its airspace | 2026-06-15 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15 | 34.5% | -6.7% | -15.6% | 1.7% | 1.4x | $4.0k | 1.5x | 0.6% | 34.0% | 35.0% |
| 0 | 0 | israel closes its airspace | 2026-06-30 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-324 | 49.5% | -7.3% | -3.1% | 1.7% | 1.0x | $538 | 0.9x | -65.0% | 45.0% | 49.0% |
| 0 | 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | 2026-06-15 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-15-2026 | 41.0% | -8.6% | -7.1% | 2.2% | 1.2x | $35.3k | 10.6x | -1.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% |
| 0 | 0 | iran closes its airspace | 2026-06-30 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-432-786-462-866 | 38.0% | -9.8% | -15.1% | 1.2% | 1.0x | $33.8k | 4.8x | -33.2% | 38.0% | 40.0% |
Multi-deadline families
| family | n | deadline curve | short haz/day | long haz/day | front-loaded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| china invade taiwan | 4 | 2026-06-30=1.7%; 2026-09-30=3.5%; 2027-01-01=7.4%; 2027-06-30=12.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3x |
| iran ceasefire continue | 9 | 2026-05-22=10.5%; 2026-05-24=17.5%; 2026-05-27=23.5%; 2026-05-31=34.5%; 2026-06-07=42.5%; 2026-06-15=49.0%; 2026-06-30=55.5%; 2026-07-31=62.0%; 2026-12-31=66.0% | 33.3% | 0.5% | 68.9x |
| iran closes its airspace | 5 | 2026-05-24=15.5%; 2026-05-27=22.5%; 2026-05-31=28.5%; 2026-06-15=34.5%; 2026-06-30=38.0% | 7.2% | 1.2% | 5.9x |
| israel closes its airspace | 4 | 2026-05-24=10.5%; 2026-05-31=21.5%; 2026-06-15=34.5%; 2026-06-30=49.5% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 2.7x |
| israel x iran permanent peace deal | 2 | 2026-05-31=1.5%; 2026-06-30=8.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7x |
| maria corina machado enter venezuela | 2 | 2026-05-31=6.0%; 2026-06-30=23.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0x |
| nato x russia military clash | 2 | 2026-06-30=4.9%; 2026-12-31=22.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1x |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | 4 | 2026-05-31=1.5%; 2026-06-30=12.5%; 2026-10-31=36.5%; 2026-12-31=46.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.6x |
| ukraine signs peace deal with russia | 2 | 2026-06-30=6.7%; 2027-01-01=29.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.1x |
| us x iran diplomatic meeting | 5 | 2026-05-22=0.4%; 2026-05-31=22.0%; 2026-06-15=41.0%; 2026-06-30=61.0%; 2026-07-31=72.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 0.7x |
| us x iran permanent peace deal | 6 | 2026-05-22=5.9%; 2026-05-31=21.5%; 2026-06-15=33.5%; 2026-06-30=41.5%; 2026-07-31=53.0%; 2026-12-31=69.5% | 18.1% | 0.5% | 34.0x |
| us x russia military clash | 2 | 2026-06-30=1.5%; 2026-12-31=4.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.8x |
Calendar pairs: does the package lock a profit?
Read each card left to right: earlier deadline → later deadline. The package is YES later + NO earlier. If it costs below 1 and the wording is truly nested, the worst-case payoff is 1, so the difference is locked profit. Current scan found no positive pairs, so cards show nearest misses and wording/depth diagnostics.
china invade taiwanwill-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026 → will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026
No arb: pay 2.1% too muchEarlier deadline
2026-06-30p=1.7%Later deadline
2026-09-30p=3.5%
2026-06-30p=1.7%Later deadline
2026-09-30p=3.5%
Buy YES later @ 3.7%+Buy NO earlier @ 98.4%=cost 1.021
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.021; top-book size: 500.0.
china invade taiwanwill-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026 → will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027
No arb: pay 3.4% too muchEarlier deadline
2026-09-30p=3.5%Later deadline
2027-01-01p=7.4%
2026-09-30p=3.5%Later deadline
2027-01-01p=7.4%
Buy YES later @ 6.6%+Buy NO earlier @ 96.8%=cost 1.034
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.034; top-book size: 10.0.
china invade taiwanwill-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026 → will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027
No arb: pay 5.0% too muchEarlier deadline
2026-06-30p=1.7%Later deadline
2027-01-01p=7.4%
2026-06-30p=1.7%Later deadline
2027-01-01p=7.4%
Buy YES later @ 6.6%+Buy NO earlier @ 98.4%=cost 1.050
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.050; top-book size: 6264.81.
us x russia military clashus-x-russia-military-clash-by-june-30-2026-249 → us-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775
No arb: pay 5.7% too muchEarlier deadline
2026-06-30p=1.5%Later deadline
2026-12-31p=4.6%
2026-06-30p=1.5%Later deadline
2026-12-31p=4.6%
Buy YES later @ 7.0%+Buy NO earlier @ 98.7%=cost 1.057
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.057; top-book size: 28.07.
iran closes its airspaceiran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15 → iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-432-786-462-866
No arb: pay 6.0% too muchEarlier deadline
2026-06-15p=34.5%Later deadline
2026-06-30p=38.0%
2026-06-15p=34.5%Later deadline
2026-06-30p=38.0%
Buy YES later @ 40.0%+Buy NO earlier @ 66.0%=cost 1.060
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.060; top-book size: 208.0.
iran closes its airspaceiran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 → iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-29
No arb: pay 6.0% too muchEarlier deadline
2026-05-24p=15.5%Later deadline
2026-05-27p=22.5%
2026-05-24p=15.5%Later deadline
2026-05-27p=22.5%
Buy YES later @ 22.0%+Buy NO earlier @ 84.0%=cost 1.060
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.060; top-book size: 28.0.
china invade taiwanwill-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027 → will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027
No arb: pay 6.5% too muchEarlier deadline
2027-01-01p=7.4%Later deadline
2027-06-30p=12.5%
2027-01-01p=7.4%Later deadline
2027-06-30p=12.5%
Buy YES later @ 13.0%+Buy NO earlier @ 93.5%=cost 1.065
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.065; top-book size: 2733.57.
iran closes its airspaceiran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-434-443-672-526-188-756 → iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15
No arb: pay 7.0% too muchEarlier deadline
2026-05-31p=28.5%Later deadline
2026-06-15p=34.5%
2026-05-31p=28.5%Later deadline
2026-06-15p=34.5%
Buy YES later @ 35.0%+Buy NO earlier @ 72.0%=cost 1.070
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.070; top-book size: 42.1.
israel x iran permanent peace dealisrael-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026 → israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-262
No arb: pay 7.6% too muchEarlier deadline
2026-05-31p=1.5%Later deadline
2026-06-30p=8.0%
2026-05-31p=1.5%Later deadline
2026-06-30p=8.0%
Buy YES later @ 9.0%+Buy NO earlier @ 98.6%=cost 1.076
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.076; top-book size: 200.9.
iran closes its airspaceiran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-29 → iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-434-443-672-526-188-756
No arb: pay 8.0% too muchEarlier deadline
2026-05-27p=22.5%Later deadline
2026-05-31p=28.5%
2026-05-27p=22.5%Later deadline
2026-05-31p=28.5%
Buy YES later @ 29.0%+Buy NO earlier @ 79.0%=cost 1.080
Event before earlierlater YES wins; earlier NO loses → payoff 1
Event between dateslater YES wins; earlier NO wins → payoff 2
No event by laterlater YES loses; earlier NO wins → payoff 1
Guaranteed min payoff is 1 only if wording is truly nested. Current top-of-book profit/share: -0.080; top-book size: 211.01.
Raw pair table
| positive | family | earlier | later | p early | p later | cost | profit/share | size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | china invade taiwan | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026 | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026 | 1.7% | 3.5% | 1.021 | -0.021 | 500 |
| 0 | china invade taiwan | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026 | will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027 | 3.5% | 7.4% | 1.034 | -0.034 | 10 |
| 0 | china invade taiwan | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026 | will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027 | 1.7% | 7.4% | 1.050 | -0.050 | 6265 |
| 0 | us x russia military clash | us-x-russia-military-clash-by-june-30-2026-249 | us-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-775 | 1.5% | 4.6% | 1.057 | -0.057 | 28 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-432-786-462-866 | 34.5% | 38.0% | 1.060 | -0.060 | 208 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-29 | 15.5% | 22.5% | 1.060 | -0.060 | 28 |
| 0 | china invade taiwan | will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027 | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027 | 7.4% | 12.5% | 1.065 | -0.065 | 2734 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-434-443-672-526-188-756 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15 | 28.5% | 34.5% | 1.070 | -0.070 | 42 |
| 0 | israel x iran permanent peace deal | israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026 | israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-262 | 1.5% | 8.0% | 1.076 | -0.076 | 201 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-29 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-434-443-672-526-188-756 | 22.5% | 28.5% | 1.080 | -0.080 | 211 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877-363-892 | 33.5% | 41.5% | 1.090 | -0.090 | 318 |
| 0 | china invade taiwan | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-september-30-2026 | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027 | 3.5% | 12.5% | 1.098 | -0.098 | 10 |
| 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2026 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-december-31-2026 | 36.5% | 46.5% | 1.110 | -0.110 | 1583 |
| 0 | china invade taiwan | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2026 | will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027 | 1.7% | 12.5% | 1.114 | -0.114 | 2734 |
| 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-may-31-2026 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-june-30-2026 | 1.5% | 12.5% | 1.117 | -0.117 | 689 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-434-443-672-526-188-756 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-432-786-462-866 | 28.5% | 38.0% | 1.120 | -0.120 | 187 |
| 0 | israel closes its airspace | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31 | 10.5% | 21.5% | 1.120 | -0.120 | 30 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31-434-443-672-526-188-756 | 15.5% | 28.5% | 1.130 | -0.130 | 28 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-259 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-july-31-2026 | 61.0% | 72.5% | 1.140 | -0.140 | 40 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026-333-871-241-192-799-449 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734 | 21.5% | 33.5% | 1.140 | -0.140 | 1011 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877-363-892 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026 | 41.5% | 53.0% | 1.140 | -0.140 | 398 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-29 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15 | 22.5% | 34.5% | 1.140 | -0.140 | 42 |
| 0 | israel closes its airspace | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15-687 | 21.5% | 34.5% | 1.150 | -0.150 | 40 |
| 0 | israel closes its airspace | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15-687 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-324 | 34.5% | 49.5% | 1.160 | -0.160 | 1 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-22-2026 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026-333-871-241-192-799-449 | 5.9% | 21.5% | 1.165 | -0.165 | 5 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026-961-587-341-574 | 53.0% | 69.5% | 1.180 | -0.180 | 8 |
| 0 | nato x russia military clash | nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-june-30-2026 | nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-december-31-2026-244 | 4.9% | 22.5% | 1.183 | -0.183 | 121 |
| 0 | maria corina machado enter venezuela | will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-may-31 | will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-june-30 | 6.0% | 23.5% | 1.190 | -0.190 | 266 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-29 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-432-786-462-866 | 22.5% | 38.0% | 1.190 | -0.190 | 211 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15 | 15.5% | 34.5% | 1.190 | -0.190 | 28 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-15-2026 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-259 | 41.0% | 61.0% | 1.200 | -0.200 | 80 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026-333-871-241-192-799-449 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877-363-892 | 21.5% | 41.5% | 1.210 | -0.210 | 4608 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026-283-616 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-15-2026 | 22.0% | 41.0% | 1.210 | -0.210 | 33 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026 | 33.5% | 53.0% | 1.220 | -0.220 | 318 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-22-2026-516 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026-283-616 | 0.4% | 22.0% | 1.227 | -0.227 | 23 |
| 0 | iran closes its airspace | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 | iran-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-432-786-462-866 | 15.5% | 38.0% | 1.240 | -0.240 | 28 |
| 0 | ukraine signs peace deal with russia | ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-june-30 | ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027 | 6.7% | 29.5% | 1.245 | -0.245 | 10 |
| 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-june-30-2026 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2026 | 12.5% | 36.5% | 1.250 | -0.250 | 669 |
| 0 | israel closes its airspace | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-june-15-687 | 10.5% | 34.5% | 1.260 | -0.260 | 30 |
| 0 | israel closes its airspace | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-31 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-324 | 21.5% | 49.5% | 1.280 | -0.280 | 1 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877-363-892 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026-961-587-341-574 | 41.5% | 69.5% | 1.290 | -0.290 | 8 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-22-2026 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734 | 5.9% | 33.5% | 1.295 | -0.295 | 5 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-15-2026 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-july-31-2026 | 41.0% | 72.5% | 1.330 | -0.330 | 40 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026-333-871-241-192-799-449 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026 | 21.5% | 53.0% | 1.340 | -0.340 | 398 |
| 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-june-30-2026 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-december-31-2026 | 12.5% | 46.5% | 1.350 | -0.350 | 1583 |
| 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-may-31-2026 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-october-31-2026 | 1.5% | 36.5% | 1.357 | -0.357 | 669 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-22-2026 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026-837-641-896-877-363-892 | 5.9% | 41.5% | 1.365 | -0.365 | 5 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026-734 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026-961-587-341-574 | 33.5% | 69.5% | 1.370 | -0.370 | 8 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026-283-616 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-259 | 22.0% | 61.0% | 1.390 | -0.390 | 94 |
| 0 | israel closes its airspace | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-may-24 | israel-closes-its-airspace-by-june-30-324 | 10.5% | 49.5% | 1.390 | -0.390 | 1 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-22-2026-516 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-15-2026 | 0.4% | 41.0% | 1.417 | -0.417 | 33 |
| 0 | russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-may-31-2026 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by-december-31-2026 | 1.5% | 46.5% | 1.457 | -0.457 | 689 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-31-2026-333-871-241-192-799-449 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026-961-587-341-574 | 21.5% | 69.5% | 1.490 | -0.490 | 8 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-22-2026 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026 | 5.9% | 53.0% | 1.495 | -0.495 | 5 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-31-2026-283-616 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-july-31-2026 | 22.0% | 72.5% | 1.520 | -0.520 | 40 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-22-2026-516 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-30-2026-983-259 | 0.4% | 61.0% | 1.597 | -0.597 | 233 |
| 0 | us x iran permanent peace deal | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-may-22-2026 | us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-december-31-2026-961-587-341-574 | 5.9% | 69.5% | 1.645 | -0.645 | 5 |
| 0 | us x iran diplomatic meeting | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-may-22-2026-516 | us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-july-31-2026 | 0.4% | 72.5% | 1.727 | -0.727 | 40 |
Historical theta-adjusted add-on
Resolved rows with parseable deadlines and p(-24h)/p(-6h): 23; Yes rate 78.3%; θ-adjusted AUC 0.889; θ≥7pp alerts 13/13 resolved Yes, Fisher p=0.0075.
Small-sample warning: those θ≥7pp rows compress to 3/3 coarse topic clusters with ≥1 Yes, not 13 independent discoveries. Cluster mix: Iran/Israel/US strike=8, Venezuela/Maduro=3, Russia/Ukraine=2. Use this as a term-structure triage feature, not a stand-alone reliability guarantee.
| yes | market | deadline | p-24h | p-6h | raw Δ | θ-abn | 6h flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | us-forces-in-venezuela-by-january-31-2026 | 2026-01-31 | 7.6% | 99.7% | 92.1% | 92.2% | $1.86M |
| 1 | iran-strike-on-israel-by-february-28 | 2027-02-28 | 9.0% | 87.6% | 78.6% | 78.6% | $313.3k |
| 1 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-may-31-2026 | 2026-05-31 | 32.5% | 100.0% | 67.5% | 68.4% | $12.69M |
| 1 | russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-2027 | 2027-01-01 | 48.5% | 99.5% | 51.0% | 51.1% | $92.3k |
| 1 | trump-invokes-war-powers-against-venezuela-by-january-9-737 | 2027-01-09 | 61.5% | 98.8% | 37.3% | 37.4% | $172.8k |
| 1 | us-strikes-iran-by-march-15-2026-176-537-334-314-311-563-139-841-296-929-674-361-128-125-587-277-713-864-314-272-772-416-338-683-554-682-743-939-378-887-219-419-692-473-532-837-119-848-847-469 | 2026-03-15 | 36.5% | 59.5% | 23.0% | 24.4% | $545.7k |
| 1 | us-strikes-iran-by-march-1-2026-492 | 2026-03-01 | 8.5% | 23.5% | 15.0% | 18.9% | $1.33M |
| 1 | will-us-or-israel-strike-iran-by-march-31-2026-233 | 2026-03-31 | 55.5% | 72.0% | 16.5% | 17.4% | $97.1k |
| 1 | israel-strikes-iran-by-march-31-2026 | 2026-03-31 | 47.5% | 62.5% | 15.0% | 15.8% | $198.0k |
| 1 | us-strikes-iran-by-march-31-2026-393-881-954 | 2026-03-31 | 54.5% | 68.5% | 14.0% | 14.9% | $856.2k |
| 1 | us-strikes-iran-by-june-30-2026-699-664-723-485-753-218-567-164-387-443-377-384-159-973-494-631-694-956-361-443-224-518-537-678-486-386-275-153-976-862-149-897-221-522-378-575-993-365-444-965-488-963-698-313-696-829-887-721-211-322-726-411-231-474-417-867 | 2026-06-30 | 65.5% | 76.5% | 11.0% | 11.2% | $237.5k |
| 1 | us-strikes-iran-by-december-31-2026-966-364-754-215-994-869-583-739 | 2026-12-31 | 69.5% | 80.5% | 11.0% | 11.1% | $128.2k |
| 1 | maduro-out-by-march-31-2026-187-483 | 2026-03-31 | 18.5% | 27.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | $699.7k |
| 1 | maduro-out-by-january-31-2026-318 | 2026-01-31 | 6.5% | 11.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | $3.18M |
| 1 | will-iran-strike-iraq-by-april-30-2026 | 2026-04-30 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | $276 |
| 1 | israel-strike-on-iran-on-june-22 | 2026-06-22 | 99.9% | 99.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | $123.4k |
| 0 | will-russia-capture-kostyantynivka-by-december-31-266-839-138 | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | $1.5k |
| 0 | will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-by-june-30-2026 | 2026-06-30 | 2.1% | 1.9% | -0.2% | -0.2% | $3.5k |
| 0 | us-forces-in-venezuela-by-december-31-572-632 | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | 0.2% | -0.5% | -0.5% | $1.1k |
| 0 | will-the-us-next-strike-iran-on-march-1-2026-et | 2026-03-01 | 7.2% | 1.5% | -5.8% | -2.1% | $67.8k |
| 0 | will-the-us-next-strike-iran-on-march-2-2026-et | 2026-03-02 | 4.0% | 0.2% | -3.8% | -2.6% | $61.8k |
| 1 | iran-strike-on-us-military-by-february-28 | 2027-02-28 | 99.2% | 96.0% | -3.3% | -3.3% | $52.9k |
| 1 | israel-strike-on-iran-on-june-24 | 2026-06-24 | 96.2% | 88.2% | -7.9% | -7.9% | $548.3k |
| 1 | us-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026-227-967-547-688-589-491-592-418-452-924-384-915-464-672-196-157-993-596-269-535-381-391-471-256-988-997-296-225-762-973-292-827-345-182-558-215-794-879-189-761 | 2026-02-28 | 6.5% | 15.5% | 9.0% | $3.51M | |
| 1 | will-us-or-israel-strike-iran-by-february-28-2026-766 | 2026-02-28 | 6.5% | 18.5% | 12.0% | $536.7k | |
| 1 | israel-strikes-iran-by-february-28-2026 | 2026-02-28 | 6.5% | 15.5% | 9.0% | $498.6k | |
| 0 | will-the-us-not-strike-iran-by-february-28-2026 | 2026-02-28 | 83.5% | 78.0% | -5.5% | $57.2k | |
| 1 | will-us-or-israel-strike-iran-on-march-3-2026 | 2026-03-03 | 99.4% | 99.8% | 0.4% | $181.7k | |
| 1 | will-us-or-israel-strike-iran-on-march-2-2026 | 2026-03-02 | 98.0% | 99.6% | 1.6% | $288.9k |